I definitely believe that it is very possible for another virus to hit our population soon that was as successful as the influenza of 1918. I believe this because viruses are a type of population control. With our world population at 7.7 billion and predicted to reach 9.5 billion by 2025, I can see another pandemic like the 1918 one coming through to control the rapidly growing population before earth runs out of resources to provide us with (World Population History). Do I think it will be another type of flu pandemic that does this? I do not think it will necessarily be the flu. One of the reasons the 1918 flu was so successful was because there were no vaccines and people didn't know about the flu virus yet (CDC 2018). Since then, there has been much advancement with knowledge and treatments of the flu. The CDC continuously works with preparing people for another big flu pandemic and keeps a close eye on when and how that might happen (CDC 2018). With people closely monitoring the flu viruses, I do not think a new flu pandemic would be able to reach the same success that the 1918 flu reached. Whatever virus hits our population has to be one that people do not know about, therefor there are no vaccines or treatments readily available to cure people with it, and it needs to be highly contagious even before symptoms appear. Being highly contagious before symptoms appear will allow it to spread to many people before people begin even feeling sick. By the time researchers and doctors start to try and diagnose/discover whatever virus is causing this pandemic, it will have already infected a multitude of people. With it being high contagious, this pandemic will go worldwide. I believe that with these factors, there could/will be another pandemic soon that is able to wipe out as much of the population as the 1918 flu did.
“1918 Pandemic (H1N1 Virus).” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 20 Mar. 2019, www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html.
“Carrying Capacity.” World Population, worldpopulationhistory.org/carrying-capacity/.
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Wow Anna! I did not think of this as I was typing my response! I agree with what you said about the earths' carrying capacity and how the virus could be used as population control! There are only so many people that the earth can sustain and once we reach that point I also believe that is when we have another pandemic or outbreak. The information you said about the virus not being the flu was very smart! I agree with what you said and how the virus would most likely be something where we have no vaccines or treatments. I did not think about this portion of the virus when writing my response. I believe that if we did have another flu pandemic it would be a different strain of the flu, something we have not seen before therefore we wouldn't have any vaccines or treatments. One reason pandemics occur is that there are no treatments or vaccines so for this future pandemic that is going to occur I believe that we would not have any vaccines or treatments for the virus. It is so easy for a virus to go worldwide which is super scary to think about. I have been thinking a lot about this Coronavirus outbreak in China and wondered if this might be the next pandemic. I have also wondered exactly how quickly pandemics occur. I know the 1918 pandemic occurred fairly fast but how long did it take for other ones to occur? This is something I hope to look in to for the future!
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Your response is eye-opening and brings a different perspective. I do believe in population control, and that what the Next Big One will be about, but I always thought it would be the flu. This is because we have experienced many flu pandemics, but at the end of the day, we were never able to control the outbreak. We see this now with outbreaks such as SARS and mostly recently Coronavirus. I do believe that if a new virus were to emerge, we would not have seen it before. This makes me think that if there were going to be another flu pandemic, it would have to be a mutation never seen before. It’s a fascinating thought that if another epidemic were to hit, we might not have many resources against it, especially on how the world works now. Due to the world being such a global network, we would spread the disease further just based on habits of flying, traveling, and social interactions. Just like you stated, there will be another pandemic soon, and it could have the potential to wipe out a significant portion of the world’s population.
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Hi Anna, I agree that I think we will have a “next big one” but I don’t think it could be the flu again. I feel like medicine and technology has evolved so much that now we know enough on this virus on ways to cure it and even preventative measures to contain it. I feel like the next big outbreak or virus will be something totally out of the ordinary. It will be something new and pretty dangerous. As we’ve seen with a lot of the viruses we studied in class that most of them originate from the animals species so my best guess would be that an animal gets this extremely rare and dangerous virus and then starts to cause a spillover we can’t control.
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Anna, I think that you are absolutely right about population control. Like we learned in class, viruses act as a natural population control based on the density of the cities or countries that we live in. I also agree that the CDC takes a lot of control measures with the flu and do a lot of research to make sure that the 1918 flu is not repeated. I do not believe that “The Next Big One” will necessarily be the flu, but I definitely believe that it is possible for there to be a virus as big as the flu. I really liked the way that you looked at the prompt for this forum!
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Hi Anna,
I agree with the fact that in order for another virus to have as big of an impact as the 1918 flu, it would have to be a novel virus, one that we have never been exposed to before. I also agree with the fact that the virus would need to be contagious before symptoms begin to show, as that will allow for more infections.
The coronavirus that is in China right now has begun spreading through people who don't show symptoms. Do you think that the coronavirus could be the "Next Big One," as it seems to have all of the things you mentioned as being the thing that was needed for a new pandemic?
I agree with the fact that in order for another virus to have as big of an impact as the 1918 flu, it would have to be a novel virus, one that we have never been exposed to before. I also agree with the fact that the virus would need to be contagious before symptoms begin to show, as that will allow for more infections.
The coronavirus that is in China right now has begun spreading through people who don't show symptoms. Do you think that the coronavirus could be the "Next Big One," as it seems to have all of the things you mentioned as being the thing that was needed for a new pandemic?
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