There may be no virus that has shaped human history and mortality more than influenza. It is possible that there could be another world-wide Flu pandemic that infects a third of the global population. There have been three influenza pandemics in each century for the last 300 years, the most recent one being the 2009 flu pandemic. (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) With the frequency and repeated occurrences of the flu pandemic, I believe that it would most likely be the Next Big One. The US Department of Homeland Security views pandemic influenza as both the most likely and the most lethal of all [infectious] threats facing the United States. (Kain and Fowler)
Unlike a bioterrorist virus that only made and release to infect certain people, the flu is apolitical. It does not discriminate between rich and poor. Geographical boundaries are meaningless, and they can circle the globe within hours.(Kain and Fowler) In terms of the potential impact on humankind, the only thing that comes close is climate change. Flu pandemics occur when a completely new or novel virus emerges. (Gupta) This sort of virus can emerge directly from animal reservoirs or be the result of a dramatic series of mutations. The flu is easy to transmit because it utilizes a respiratory route, that is, through a sneeze or cough.
We have seen pandemic influenza occur multiple times before, and at increasing rates. History has shown us how devastating pandemic influenza can be, especially to younger, healthier individuals. As humans continue to live in closer proximity to each other, travel more extensively, and interact with greater numbers of birds and livestock, the risk of emergence of the next pandemic influenza virus mounts. (Kain and Fowler) Now is the time to prepare and coordinate local, national, and global efforts. When considering preparation for the next pandemic, it is not a matter of if it will occur, but rather a matter of when.
Gupta, Dr. Sanjay. “The Big One Is Coming, and It's Going to Be a Flu Pandemic.” CNN, Cable News Network, 7 Nov. 2018, www.cnn.com/2017/04/07/health/flu-pandemic-sanjay-gupta/index.html.
Kain, T., Fowler, R. Preparing intensive care for the next pandemic influenza. Crit Care 23, 337 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13054-019-2616-1
“Past Pandemics.” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 10 Aug. 2018, www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/basics/past-pandemics.htm