Jonah Dennis Forum 4

Jonah Dennis Forum 4

by Jonah Dennis -
Number of replies: 3

While a new world wide flu epidemic is possible I think it is highly unlikely or if it does occur the fatality rate will be much lower. In order for the flu to turn into an international epidemic it would either need to be a new and undiscovered strain that the scientific community does not have a vaccine for as well as individuals lacking antibodies. This would require the flu to be from a new host like a fish flu since it could spread easily undetected in predators to human populations across the world. However, I believe that the next big one will more likely be the result of some sort of bio-terrorist attack involving a virus like smallpox. If one was able to obtain smallpox from one of the two facilities that actually still store it and successfully mutate it into a new strain that the vaccine does not cover it would easily spread from individual to individual carrying a lethality rate likely above 20 percent since it would be weaponized. In the lethal sense it would potentially be more devastating since it would not only kill more people it would be much hard to contain since unknowningly medical professionals could spread it across multiple patients. While the risk of bioterrorism is low I would argue that the rate of it is higher than a new flu epidemic since as we learned in class the flu is heavily researched and monitored year round it would be more likely yo become detected early.

“Bioterrorism Response Planning.” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 6 Jan. 2017, www.cdc.gov/smallpox/bioterrorism-response-planning/index.html.


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In reply to Jonah Dennis

Re: Jonah Dennis Forum 4

by Deleted user -
I definitely agree that it is possible for the flu to have another pandemic but also very very rare at the same time, like you said it would have to be a new strain that no one has seen before. I also agree that the next big one could for sure be a bioterrorist weapon. If that were possible and someone could change it to make it go around the vaccination and infect everyone that would be very bad and especially like you said there are only a few places left holding smallpox. Which could also mean there would be a lack of research on that new strain and by then it would be too late.

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In reply to Jonah Dennis

Re: Jonah Dennis Forum 4

by Deleted user -
I agree that there might be another deadly disease like flu, but there should be a new host with new mechanisms of transmission and virulence. That is brilliant for you to think of fish as a host animal. Fish would be the last animal people would think of to cause a particular disease; definitely, it would take a while to figure out the host animal and treatments. Also, the attack of bio-terrorist would be such a threat to the world, and a new strain would be resistant to most of the used medicine, which would be devastating while killing millions of people.

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In reply to Jonah Dennis

Re: Jonah Dennis Forum 4

by Deleted user -
Hey Jonah! I completely agree that while another global flu epidemic is possible, it is highly unlikely, and it definitely would not be as catastrophic as the 1918 epidemic. We have so many vaccines and treatments now, and people are much more educated on disease transmission and safety measures to combat the spread of disease. I think it is interesting that you think the “Next Big One” could be a bioterrorist attack. I think it could definitely be possible. The thing about it being a bioterrorist attack is that the intention would be to kill people, so the fatality rate would probably be significantly higher. A mutated form of smallpox would be devastating, and despite modern medical advancements, it would be very difficult to control. It is pretty scary to think about.

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