I believe that there could be a pandemic that affects a third of the global population with a fatality rate close to 20%. This is because of the growing population, underdeveloped areas with little to no accurate medical practices, and lack of knowledge regarding newly discovered viruses and bacteria. Although H5N1 is not a completely new type of flu, I believe it has the ability to cause an uproar if/when another outbreak occurs. In 2005 there was a 63% fatality rate that rose to 85.7% in 2007(CIDRAP). Although sixty-three percent is very alarming in regards to a viruses fatality rate, the fact that it rose over twenty percent in only two years is more than alarming. In addition, the fact that this strain mutates so quickly makes treatment much harder when an outbreak occurs(CDC). Furthermore, the fact that there are countries such as Asia that are highly populated and they eat many different types of animals such as wild birds makes the spread of H5N1 even easier considering human to human contact is not the most ideal way for this disease to spread, rather contact with an infected bird is the way most people are infected. Another factor that contributes to a big outbreak is the fact that people are constantly traveling to different countries and in turn spreading viruses to more and more countries very quickly. Spreading a virus globally is a sure way to affect more people and with H5N1 having a fatality rate that climbs to high numbers so quickly means that there will be millions upon millions of fatalities.
“Highly Pathogenic Asian Avian Influenza A(H5N1) in People.” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 18 Mar. 2015, www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/h5n1-people.htm.
Roos, Robert. “Reports Examine High H5N1 Death Rate in Indonesia.” CIDRAP, 17 July 2008, www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2008/07/reports-examine-high-h5n1-death-rate-indonesia.